Calculated Risks

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Calculated Risks


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Calculated Risks


Calculated Risks
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Author : Gerd Gigerenzer
language : en
Publisher: Simon and Schuster
Release Date : 2015-11-10

Calculated Risks written by Gerd Gigerenzer and has been published by Simon and Schuster this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2015-11-10 with Social Science categories.


At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.

Calculated Risks


Calculated Risks
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Author : Joseph V. Rodricks
language : en
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Release Date : 2006-11-23

Calculated Risks written by Joseph V. Rodricks and has been published by Cambridge University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2006-11-23 with Science categories.


Safeguarding economic prosperity, whilst protecting human health and the environment, is at the forefront of scientific and public interest. This book provides a practical and balanced view on toxicology, control, risk assessment and risk management, addressing the interplay between science and public health policy. This revised edition provides a detailed analysis on chemical and by-product exposure, how they enter the body and the suitability of imposed safety limits. Chapters on dose, with particular emphasis on children and vulnerable subpopulations, reproductive and developmental toxicants and toxicity testing are included. With updated and comprehensive coverage of international developments of risk management and safety, this will have broad appeal to researchers and professionals involved in chemical safety and regulation as well as the general reader interested in environmental pollution and public health.

Calculated Risks


Calculated Risks
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Author : Seanan McGuire
language : en
Publisher: Penguin
Release Date : 2021-02-23

Calculated Risks written by Seanan McGuire and has been published by Penguin this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-23 with Fiction categories.


The tenth book in the fast-paced InCryptid urban fantasy series returns to the mishaps of the Price family, eccentric cryptozoologists who safeguard the world of magical creatures living in secret among humans. Just when Sarah Zellaby, adopted Price cousin and telepathic ambush predator, thought that things couldn't get worse, she's had to go and prove herself wrong. After being kidnapped and manipulated by her birth family, she has undergone a transformation called an instar, reaching back to her Apocritic origins to metamorphize. While externally the same, she is internally much more powerful, and much more difficult to control. Even by herself. After years of denial, the fact that she will always be a cuckoo has become impossible to deny. Now stranded in another dimension with a handful of allies who seem to have no idea who she is--including her cousin Annie and her maybe-boyfriend Artie, both of whom have forgotten their relationship--and a bunch of cuckoos with good reason to want her dead, Sarah must figure out not only how to contend with her situation, but with the new realities of her future. What is she now? Who is she now? Is that person someone she can live with? And when all is said and done, will she be able to get the people she loves, whether or not they've forgotten her, safely home?

Calculated Risk


Calculated Risk
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Author : Michael Palumbo
language : en
Publisher:
Release Date : 2016-03-30

Calculated Risk written by Michael Palumbo and has been published by this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-03-30 with categories.


How does an entrepreneur take any idea and turn it into a profitable venture? What do investors look for when evaluating start-ups? These two important questions are answered in a new book by one of America's top traders, Michael J. Palumbo, called Calculated Risk: The Modern Entrepreneur's Handbook. The book helps founders and executives navigate today's business climate from idea conception through funding, expansion, and exiting. Calculated Risk provides an insider's perspective from someone in the know. Palumbo started a prop trading group in Chicago that turned into a highly successful U.S. stock options business, a firm that was one of the largest equity options trading groups in the country in the late 1990's and early 2000's. Palumbo's book reveals the following: * How to launch an idea from concept to funding. * How to best hire and build a start-up - right until you exit. * What venture capitalists look for in a start-up -and why it is not always profitability. * What start-ups should look for from their investors - it is not always about the money. * Why the best entrepreneurs are the ones who can predict what people will need before they even know they in fact need it. * How some entrepreneurs can gain an edge over their competition. Palumbo has a tell-it-like-it-is approach to revealing insights in the marketplace on how things will shake out. Offering a voice of experience and vision, Palumbo not only explains why something is happening in the markets, but also reveals why something will happen.

Calculated Risk


Calculated Risk
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Author : George Leopold
language : en
Publisher: Purdue University Press
Release Date : 2016

Calculated Risk written by George Leopold and has been published by Purdue University Press this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016 with Biography & Autobiography categories.


Unlike other American astronauts, Virgil I. "Gus" Grissom never had the chance to publish his memoirs—save for an account of his role in the Gemini program—before the tragic launch pad fire on January 27, 1967, which took his life and those of Edward White and Roger Chaffee. The international prestige of winning the Moon Race cannot be understated, and Grissom played a pivotal and enduring role in securing that legacy for the United States. Indeed, Grissom was first and foremost a Cold Warrior, a member of the first group of Mercury astronauts whose goal it was to beat the Soviet Union to the moon. Drawing on extensive interviews with fellow astronauts, NASA engineers, family members, and friends of Gus Grissom, George Leopold delivers a comprehensive survey of Grissom’s life that places his career in the context of the Cold War and the history of human spaceflight. Calculated Risk: The Supersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom adds significantly to our understanding of that tumultuous period in American history. --Publisher

Calculated Risks


Calculated Risks
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Author : Seanan McGuire
language : en
Publisher: Incryptid
Release Date : 2021-02-23

Calculated Risks written by Seanan McGuire and has been published by Incryptid this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2021-02-23 with Fiction categories.


The tenth book in the fast-paced InCryptid urban fantasy series returns to the mishaps of the Price family, eccentric cryptozoologists who safeguard the world of magical creatures living in secret among humans. Just when Sarah Zellaby, adopted Price cousin and telepathic ambush predator, thought that things couldn't get worse, she's had to go and prove herself wrong. After being kidnapped and manipulated by her birth family, she has undergone a transformation called an instar, reaching back to her Apocritic origins to metamorphize. While externally the same, she is internally much more powerful, and much more difficult to control. Even by herself. After years of denial, the fact that she will always be a cuckoo has become impossible to deny. Now stranded in another dimension with a handful of allies who seem to have no idea who she is--including her cousin Annie and her maybe-boyfriend Artie, both of whom have forgotten their relationship--and a bunch of cuckoos with good reason to want her dead, Sarah must figure out not only how to contend with her situation, but with the new realities of her future. What is she now? Who is she now? Is that person someone she can live with? And when all is said and done, will she be able to get the people she loves, whether or not they've forgotten her, safely home?

Risk Bluff In Chess


Risk Bluff In Chess
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Author : Vladimir Tukmakov
language : en
Publisher: New In Chess
Release Date : 2016-08-18

Risk Bluff In Chess written by Vladimir Tukmakov and has been published by New In Chess this book supported file pdf, txt, epub, kindle and other format this book has been release on 2016-08-18 with Games & Activities categories.


You cannot win in chess without taking risks. Winning requires courage and psychology. No matter how deep you calculate, there always comes a point where you have to deal with uncertainties and take a decision. What is carefully calculated risk, and what is bluff? And why were famous players like Lasker and Tal so successful with both? They realized that chess is not a science. Emotions also play a role behind the board. If you can guess what your opponent is feeling and thinking, you are ahead of him. When your main aim is to derail your opponent’s calculation by weaving a web of deception, you engage in the highest form of risk: bluff. Renowned chess coach Vladimir Tukmakov has played against, and worked with, quite a few chess greats. Many of them told him frankly about their thoughts and feelings during crucial games. These stories became the foundation of a collection of more than 100 practical ways that masters and grandmasters have used to push beyond the limits of calculation and take a deliberate risk. It works – even at the highest level! Tukmakov shows how to trick your opponent into believing your bluff. After studying this book, with its many fascinating and often funny examples, you will think twice before wasting an opportunity to do what even the greatest players do: bluff your way to victory!